PIAA baseball trends

If history is any indication, the Cedar Cliff baseball team would have been better off losing to Manheim Township on Thursday in the District 3 Class AAAA championship game.

Why?

Well, in the expanded era (2005, when the PIAA adopted a fourth class for baseball, to present) the 3-AAAA champion has an underwhelming 1-5 record in PIAA first-round games.

The only team to win its state opener was Manheim Township in 2006 when the Blue Streaks pounded Methacton, 11-4, and eventually finished as state runner-up to Delaware Valley.

Other than that, the first round has a been a graveyard for 3-AAAA champions, who lost three of those five games by two runs or fewer.

On the other side of the coin, the 3-AAAA runner-up is a stellar 5-1 in first-round state playoff games. The lone loser over the last six years was Central Dauphin in 2008.

In Class AAA, both Mechanicsburg and Northern have a 50-50 chance to qualify for the quarterfinals. Since 2005, the 3-AAA champion and third-place team are both 3-3 in the first round.

In reality, Mechanicsburg clearly has the better draw. The Wildcats play close to home, at Northern, against a team, District 12 runner-up Franklin Towne Charter, that has as many wins (five) as Mechanicsburg has losses.

Northern is forced to make the long trip to Altoona's Blair County Ballpark to meet District 5-6 winner Somerset, which comes in with a solid 18-5 record.

Remember, historical numbers have absolutely no bearing on what happens Monday. The fact that 3-AAAA champions have been awful in state playoff openers will not affect how Cedar Cliff does against Methacton. If the Colts come out and play as well as they did in storming to the 3-AAAA title, there's a good chance we'll be seeing Cedar Cliff again on Thursday.

But, if they make mistakes and don't play well, it will be Methacton that beats them, not history.