We know the discussion of NCAA Division II football isn't a high school sport, but it's worthy of taking a look at what could happen to Shippensburg over the next few days.Before a sub-par showing at Cheyney, the Red Raiders were No. 2 in the Super Regional 1 rankings. Shippensburg dropped a spot after a 31-10 win against Cheyney that helped them clinch the PSAC East Division outright. But the win obviously wasn't impressive enough to hold off California, the same team Shippensburg hosts at 1 p.m. Saturday in the PSAC championship.
Here's the problem for Shippensburg: Not including California, only three other teams in top 10 of the rankings are playing an opponent with a winning record. That means if the Red Raiders lose, they're going to drop and probably miss out on hosting a national playoff game. If Shippensburg gets crushed, there's a chance the Red Raiders could miss the playoffs altogether. Frankly, we don't see that happening. It'd be tough to leave an outright division champion out of the field but losses to Shepherd and C.W. Post will hurt Shippensburg.
Below is a look at how we think the region will play out with comments about why we think each team will land where:
1. California (9-2 overall, No. 2 this week) -- It's tough to keep the PSAC champion from being the top seed. A big win over Shippensburg will give the Vulcans top billing. A close call and West Liberty State will remain No. 1.
2. West Liberty State (10-1, 1) -- Hilltoppers will beat Concord but the lack of strength the WVIAC provides will keep them from the top seed. Plus, West Liberty lost to Edinboro, 42-30, in Week 1. Keep that result in mind.
3. Bloomsburg (9-2, 5) -- Yes, the Huskies lost two straight. But losing to Shippensburg and West Chester isn't the end of the world. Plus, the team stayed in the top six despite the mini losing streak. Bloomsburg should erase any doubts by crushing Gannon.
4. Bentley (9-1, 4) -- There's probably a few PSAC teams more deserving than Bentley but the Northeast 10 has to be represented and here's the answer. What's worse, the committee will probably award Bentley with a home game for winning its conference.
5. Shippensburg (8-3, 3) -- Outside of a 63-0 loss to California, Shippensburg should make the field. We'd argue the Raiders deserve a home game (a game at Bentley is winnable but scary) that they won't get. A way to avoid a long trip and play at Seth Grove Stadium next week: Beat California.
6. Edinboro (8-3, 7) -- Follow along if you can. The Fighting Scots enter this week just outside the playoff picture and travel to Millersville (3-7) while East Stroudsburg, which is currently No. 6, hosts Slippery Rock (6-4). We think both teams will win but have Edinboro with the last spot. Why? Becuase the Scots handed West Liberty its only loss. Edinboro might be doomed by its loss to Clarion (7-3) last week. East Stroudsburg's best win: 21-20 over a sub-par West Chester team. But the Warrios beat Clarion this fall. If the committee is forced to choose between these teams, we think it will select Edinboro because of that win over West Liberty.
Near misses: East Stroudsburg (8-3), Charleston (9-2), Clarion (8-3), Bowie State (7-4).
Here's how we see this field playing out:
First Round (winning team bolded)
Shippensburg at Bentley
Edinboro at Bloomsburg
Second Round
Shippensburg at California
Bloomsburg at West Liberty
National Quarterfinals
Bloomsburg at California
The winner of Super Regional 1 will play the winner of Super Regional 2 in the national semifinals. That will be a bad draw for California, which will be making its third straight semifinal appearance. The likely opponent is unbeaten and top-ranked North Alabama. The Lions, who have a slew of Division I-A transfers, are coached by former Auburn boss Tommy Bowden and would likely host this game. North Alabama plays its home games at Braley Stadium, which is the site of the national championship game. The NCAA determines the semifinal host by which facility is better. Plain and simple.
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